Optuna Metric Projection
A concise report on projecting Optuna’s best-so-far trajectory with four saturation curves. The method estimates the expected best metric after $K$ additional trials (forward) or the trials needed to reach a target $T$ (inverse) without using hyperparameter (HP) coordinates and without the over-optimism that plagues surrogate-based projection. 1. Problem Setting and Motivation Optuna (Akiba et…